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Portable Exhaled Nitric Oxide Detector
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Portable Exhaled Nitric Oxide Detector
portable & noninvasive nitric oxide sensor for doctors
A point-of-care, noninvasive medical device detects the amount of inflamation in a patient's lungs by measuring the concentration of nitric oxide in the patient's exhaled breathe
Annual Sales Forecast for USA * Innovation Status Idea
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Development
Status
Proprietary
Protection Status
Concept
Score
Ultra Low $0 $1,500 $16,000 1 of 5
In Development
2 of 5
Patent Pending
19
29 is
Average
Low Support $21,000 $69,000 $180,000
Medium Support $180,000 $510,000 $1.1 M
High Support $510,000 $1.4 M $3.1 M Remaining Time & Cost to First Sale
Ultra High $940,000 $2.6 M $5.8 M 3-5 yrs $1M-$10M
Portable Exhaled Nitric Oxide Detector - portable & noninvasive nitric oxide sensor for doctors
Final Decision Maker: Hospitals, physician's offices, doctors, hospital admins

Our nitric oxide sensors may be used to identify possible asthmatics, particularly very young children with airway inflammation. Early detection of an asthmatic condition may enable a health care provider to appropriately treat the condition before the individual experiences adverse affects in lung function. Evidence suggests that the higher the concentration of nitric oxide in an individual's exhalation, the more likely the individual is to suffer from an asthmatic condition. Further, the detectors can be configured to differentiate between asthma and other conditions that mimic asthma, such as, post-nasal drainage, gastroesophageal reflux, vocal cord dysfunction, and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. In addition, our sensors may assist a clinician to determine whether a patient's medication regimen needs to be changed and is useful for monitoring overall control of the condition.
Our nitric oxide sensors are capable of detecting parts-per-billion (ppb), and lower, concentrations of nitric oxide. Thus allowing a user of the sensor to detect the amount of inflammation in a patient's lungs by measuring the concentration of nitric oxide in their exhaled breathe.

$10,000 for one portable sensorSeeking: Purchase, Manufacturing/R&D

* Consumption sales forecast. Does not include "Random" events or "Inventory Fill". Forecast is for Year 1 for Large or Year 2 for Small Companies.
  Forecast should be read as ..."With Low marketing support there is an 80% odds of achieving sales of at least...
Listing #: USA.76.032409.002 Page 1 of 5 Date Posted: 2009-04-08
©2008. Eureka! Institute. All Rights Reserved. Patents Granted or Pending Eureka! Ranch International www.EurekaRanch.com (513) 271-9911

Report Assumptions and Inventor(s) Commentary
Inventor(s) Assumptions "Most Likely"
Estimate
Confidence Inventor(s) Commentary
Data Source or Basis for Assumptions
# of Possible Final Decision Makers 20,000 10% guestimate 
Revenue per First Purchase $5,000.00 20% guestimate 
% that will Repeat N/A N/A  
Number of Annual Repeats N/A N/A  
Revenue per Repeat Purchase N/A N/A  
Reseller (Trade) Margin N/A N/A  
Producer Profit (EBITD) 20% 20%  
 
Innovation Status
Development
Status
1 of 5
In Development
A portable amperometric sensor configured to sense concentrations of nitric oxide. A prototype is under development.
Cost to First Sale (remaining) $1M-$10M 20%
Time to First Sale (remaining) 3-5 yrs 20%  
Confidence in Concept Claims made in description 20% Testing in lab with "artificial" or simulated breathe. 
Proprietary
Protection Status
2 of 5
Patent Pending
US Patent Application No. 11/549,425, entitled "Nitric oxide sensor," filed on 10/13/2006. 
Concept Score & Diagnostics
Merwyn Concept Score
With Confidence Bands
Pessimistic
80% odds
of at Least
Most Likely
50% odds
of at Least
Optimistic
20% odds
of at Least

15%

19%

27%
Concept Diagnostics Red Yellow Green
Percentile Group Bottom 40% Middle 40% Top 20%
Overt Benefit
Reason to Believe
Dramatic Difference
Listing #: USA.76.032409.002 Page 2 of 5 Date Posted: 2009-04-08
©2008. Eureka! Institute. All Rights Reserved. Patents Granted or Pending Eureka! Ranch International www.EurekaRanch.com (513) 271-9911

Inventor Commentary & Alternative Development Scenarios
Inventor(s) Sales Goals
Minimum Goal $0.5 M Current GOAL $10 M
A cross-sectional illustration of an amperometric sensor in accordance with one embodiment of the present invention.
Inventor(s) Commentary:
CURRENT SALES FORECAST
 
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $1,500 $16,000
Low Support $21,000 $69,000 $180,000
Medium Support $180,000 $510,000 $1.1 M
High Support $510,000 $1.4 M $3.1 M
Ultra High $940,000 $2.6 M $5.8 M
If MARKETING CONCEPT Improved
(Increase Concept Score by +20 Points)
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $3,400 $35,000
Low Support $49,000 $160,000 $360,000
Medium Support $430,000 $1.1 M $2.3 M
High Support $1.2 M $3.2 M $6.3 M
Ultra High $2.3 M $5.9 M $11.7 M
If MARKETING CONCEPT and PRODUCT/SERVICE Improved
(Increase Concept +20 Points, Repeat Rate & Number of repeats by 30% and Revenue per purchase 20%)
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $3,300 $35,000
Low Support $50,000 $150,000 $370,000
Medium Support $430,000 $1.1 M $2.3 M
High Support $1.2 M $3.2 M $6.3 M
Ultra High $2.3 M $5.9 M $11.7 M
Listing #: USA.76.032409.002 Page 3 of 5 Date Posted: 2009-04-08
©2008. Eureka! Institute. All Rights Reserved. Patents Granted or Pending Eureka! Ranch International www.EurekaRanch.com (513) 271-9911

Additional Details
Fair Market Royalty (%)
  Conservative - 80% Odds
Royalty Percentage
Most Likely - 50% Odds
Royalty Percentage
Aggressive - 20% Odds
Royalty Percentage
At CURRENT State & Status 1.2% 2.8% 5%
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Annual Inventor Royalty Revenue 3 Year Value
to Inventor
If 50% Odds
80% Odds 50% Odds 20% Odds
Ultra Low Support $41 $140 $320 $420
Low Support $700 $2,200 $4,500 $6,500
Medium Support $5,000 $15,000 $30,000 $44,000
High Support $14,000 $40,000 $82,000 $120,000
Ultra High Support $26,000 $75,000 $150,000 $230,000
Sales & Marketing Support Level Assumptions
Sales & Marketing Support Level Assumptions Sample Numbers
% Aware x
% Distribution
(Aware & Able)
Inventor
Confidence
% Distribution % Awareness
Ultra Low Support
(Word of Mouth)
5% 3% 0.2% N/A
Low Support
(Small Company)
20% 10% 2% N/A
Medium Support
(Medium Sized Company)
50% 25% 13% N/A
High Support
(Large Company)
75% 45% 34% N/A
Ultra High Support
(Mega or Niche)
90% 70% 63% %
Graph of EQUIVALENT (Awareness x Distribution) Combinations
NAICS Industry Codes
For This Invention
62211 - General Medical and Surgical Hospitals
54171 - Research and Development in the Physical, Enginee...
62111 - Offices of Physicians
 
 
Patent Numbers that apply to this Product/Service
 11/549,425
 
 
 
 
Inventor(s) PEDIGREE
Years EXPERIENCE in related industry 30
GRANTED Patents 2
Licensing Deals SIGNED 2
Innovations that have SHIPPED 0
For USA Patents: Utility Patent = 7 digit number, Design Patent starts with D, Planet Patent starts with PP. Provisional Application "61/xxx,xxx", Non provisional application "12/xxx,xxx", Design patent application "29/xxx,xxx"
CAUTION: This Merwyn Business Simulation Research Report includes no warranty or guarantee. Results and opinions should be considered rough and directional in nature. This is because the report is based upon inventor-supplied data and simplified modeling methods. If you are looking to invest, distribute, purchase or become involved with this innovation, in any way, we strongly urge you to validate the inventor data and sales forecasts BEFORE committing yourself or your resources. Merwyn Research, Inc. shall not be responsible for any liability or damages arising out of the failure to perform such investigation and validation. Changes in the concept description, product, pricing, or input assumptions will almost certainly change results.
Listing #: USA.76.032409.002 Page 4 of 5 Date Posted: 2009-04-08
©2008. Eureka! Institute. All Rights Reserved. Patents Granted or Pending Eureka! Ranch International www.EurekaRanch.com (513) 271-9911

Additional Forecasts for Other Countries
Annual Sales - Probability Forecast - Canada
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $230 $2,500
Low Support $3,300 $11,000 $28,000
Medium Support $28,000 $80,000 $180,000
High Support $81,000 $230,000 $500,000
Ultra High $150,000 $420,000 $920,000
Annual Sales - Probability Forecast - United Kingdom
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $420 $4,500
Low Support $5,800 $19,000 $50,000
Medium Support $50,000 $140,000 $320,000
High Support $140,000 $400,000 $880,000
Ultra High $270,000 $740,000 $1.6 M
Forecast are calculated based on population, (PPP) purchasing power parity, International Trade, Urbanization and the Human Growth Index.
Forecast can be skewed for some industries, so for best results, adjusting the number of final decision makers for every country is recommended.
Listing #: USA.76.032409.002 Page 5 of 5 Date Posted: 2009-04-08
©2008. Eureka! Institute. All Rights Reserved. Patents Granted or Pending Eureka! Ranch International www.EurekaRanch.com (513) 271-9911
©2009-2010. Eureka! Institute. Inc. All Rights Reserved. Used under license by Merwyn Research, Inc. Patents Granted or Pending www.Merwyn.com
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