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FlyTox
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FlyTox
faster data for drug developer
This product and service enables a low cost, high throughput alternative to animal-based laboratory toxicity testing for analysis of pharmaceutical and industrial chemicals.
Annual Sales Forecast for USA * Innovation Status Idea
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Development
Status
Proprietary
Protection Status
Concept
Score
Ultra Low $0 $9,100 $88,000 1 of 5
In Development
2 of 5
Patent Pending
43
29 is
Average
Low Support $110,000 $380,000 $1.0 M
Medium Support $920,000 $2.8 M $6.5 M
High Support $2.5 M $7.6 M $17.6 M Remaining Time & Cost to First Sale
Ultra High $4.9 M $14.8 M $33.6 M 3-5 yrs $1M-$10M
FlyTox - faster data for drug developer
Final Decision Maker: Biosciences Researcher

        Our product and services will provide a way to test the toxicity of man made chemicals very rapidly and with little cost.  We have invented a way to get chemicals to soak into the developing embryo of a fruit fly.  The fruit fly has been used in laboratory tests for nearly a century.   Scientific studies have shown that fruit flies and humans share the same genes for more than 75% of the genetic diseases that humans experience.  Fly embryos are therfore very informative for predicting how chemicals will effect development of the human fetus.    
       The benefits of this test are that it greatly reduces the time needed and cost to determine the potentially bad effects of a chemical on a developing animal.  Mice and rats are currently used to determine toxicity in animals.  In industries where tens of thousands of synthetic chemical need to be tested, such as in the pharmaceutical industry, the time and cost of using mice and rats for toxicity testing is enormous.  Fruit fly embryos develop in a day, as compared to 20-28 days for mice and rat embryos.  Maintaining fruit flies in a laboratory is a fraction of the cost of maintaining mice and rats.  Thus, the benefits of this product and service is to deliver laboratory data on animal toxicity of chemical compounds in a fraction of the time and cost of current methods.
     The method is simple and straightforward.  Treating embryos uses non-toxic solvents that are inexpensive and from a renewable natural resource.  The instruments needed to conduct the tests are already available from biomedical research supply companies.  Thus, an additional benefit of the product and service is that is easy to install and uses very inexpensive supplies.
  
     

$500 for 0ne 96-well test plate containing 96 samplesSeeking: Investment, Manufacturing/R&D

Email Inventor(s) Link to Website With More Info Link to YouTube Video
* Consumption sales forecast. Does not include "Random" events or "Inventory Fill". Forecast is for Year 1 for Large or Year 2 for Small Companies.
  Forecast should be read as ..."With Low marketing support there is an 80% odds of achieving sales of at least...
Listing #: USA.76.022409.001 Page 1 of 5 Date Posted: 2009-04-08
©2008. Eureka! Institute. All Rights Reserved. Patents Granted or Pending Eureka! Ranch International www.EurekaRanch.com (513) 271-9911

Report Assumptions and Inventor(s) Commentary
Inventor(s) Assumptions "Most Likely"
Estimate
Confidence Inventor(s) Commentary
Data Source or Basis for Assumptions
# of Possible Final Decision Makers 1,000 30%  
Revenue per First Purchase $50,000.00 20% Estimates based on ~5000 tests (1000 compounds at 5 concentrations) Approx. 50 96-well plates at $200/plate= $10000. 2-7 plate types needed for organ specific screens = ~$50000 
% that will Repeat 30% 20%  
Number of Annual Repeats 2 20%  
Revenue per Repeat Purchase $50,000.00 20%  
Reseller (Trade) Margin N/A N/A  
Producer Profit (EBITD) 19% 30% Industry standard is 19% 
 
Innovation Status
Development
Status
1 of 5
In Development
Compositions and prototype devices have been tested in a lab and show proof of concept. Methods need optimization to reduce variability and obtain regulatory validation.
Cost to First Sale (remaining) $1M-$10M 40% Costs are in instrumentation (~$500,000), lab personnel, regulatory validation.
Time to First Sale (remaining) 3-5 yrs 40% Its a laboratory test in development. It needs validation and this takes time. 
Confidence in Concept Claims made in description 40% Proof of principle tests in the laboratory are complete. More confidence will be derived from continued testing for eliminating variation in sample preparation and endpoints. 
Proprietary
Protection Status
2 of 5
Patent Pending
A provisional Patent Application has been filed the compositions, device and methods of the invention. 
Concept Score & Diagnostics
Merwyn Concept Score
With Confidence Bands
Pessimistic
80% odds
of at Least
Most Likely
50% odds
of at Least
Optimistic
20% odds
of at Least

28%

43%

58%
Concept Diagnostics Red Yellow Green
Percentile Group Bottom 40% Middle 40% Top 20%
Overt Benefit
Reason to Believe
Dramatic Difference
Listing #: USA.76.022409.001 Page 2 of 5 Date Posted: 2009-04-08
©2008. Eureka! Institute. All Rights Reserved. Patents Granted or Pending Eureka! Ranch International www.EurekaRanch.com (513) 271-9911

Inventor Commentary & Alternative Development Scenarios
Inventor(s) Sales Goals
Minimum Goal $1 M Current GOAL $5 M
Fly embryos treated sequentially to make them accessible to chemicals (dechorination and permeabilization). Automated instrumentation distributes and detects a toxic endpoint.
Inventor(s) Commentary:
The biggest excitement surrounding this new technology is its potential to drastically reduce and replace small animal tests commonly used in the industry. The added benefit of an approximate 10-fold time reduction and its high throughput capabilities offers 10-100 fold reduction in cost. A second market opportunity for a smaller scale version of the product would be the general research community potentially servicing >2,000 laboratories.
CURRENT SALES FORECAST
 
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $9,100 $88,000
Low Support $110,000 $380,000 $1.0 M
Medium Support $920,000 $2.8 M $6.5 M
High Support $2.5 M $7.6 M $17.6 M
Ultra High $4.9 M $14.8 M $33.6 M
If MARKETING CONCEPT Improved
(Increase Concept Score by +20 Points)
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $14,000 $130,000
Low Support $170,000 $580,000 $1.5 M
Medium Support $1.4 M $4.2 M $9.6 M
High Support $3.8 M $11.3 M $25.8 M
Ultra High $7.4 M $22.2 M $49.4 M
If PRODUCT/SERVICE Improved
(Increase Repeat Rate & Number of Repeats by 30% and Revenue Per Purchase 20%)
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $12,000 $120,000
Low Support $150,000 $520,000 $1.5 M
Medium Support $1.2 M $3.8 M $9.2 M
High Support $3.4 M $10.5 M $24.5 M
Ultra High $6.5 M $19.9 M $46.5 M
If MARKETING CONCEPT and PRODUCT/SERVICE Improved
(Increase Concept +20 Points, Repeat Rate & Number of repeats by 30% and Revenue per purchase 20%)
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $19,000 $180,000
Low Support $230,000 $780,000 $2.1 M
Medium Support $1.8 M $5.7 M $13.3 M
High Support $5.0 M $15.7 M $35.8 M
Ultra High $10.1 M $29.8 M $67.6 M
Listing #: USA.76.022409.001 Page 3 of 5 Date Posted: 2009-04-08
©2008. Eureka! Institute. All Rights Reserved. Patents Granted or Pending Eureka! Ranch International www.EurekaRanch.com (513) 271-9911

Additional Details
Fair Market Royalty (%)
  Conservative - 80% Odds
Royalty Percentage
Most Likely - 50% Odds
Royalty Percentage
Aggressive - 20% Odds
Royalty Percentage
At CURRENT State & Status 1.2% 2.4% 3.8%
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Annual Inventor Royalty Revenue 3 Year Value
to Inventor
If 50% Odds
80% Odds 50% Odds 20% Odds
Ultra Low Support $210 $660 $1,400 $2,000
Low Support $3,500 $9,900 $20,000 $30,000
Medium Support $25,000 $67,000 $130,000 $200,000
High Support $68,000 $180,000 $360,000 $550,000
Ultra High Support $130,000 $360,000 $700,000 $1.1 M
Sales & Marketing Support Level Assumptions
Sales & Marketing Support Level Assumptions Sample Numbers
% Aware x
% Distribution
(Aware & Able)
Inventor
Confidence
% Distribution % Awareness
Ultra Low Support
(Word of Mouth)
5% 3% 0.2% N/A
Low Support
(Small Company)
20% 10% 2% %
Medium Support
(Medium Sized Company)
50% 25% 13% N/A
High Support
(Large Company)
75% 45% 34% N/A
Ultra High Support
(Mega or Niche)
90% 70% 63% N/A
Graph of EQUIVALENT (Awareness x Distribution) Combinations
NAICS Industry Codes
For This Invention
54171 - Research and Development in the Physical, Enginee...
 
 
 
 
Patent Numbers that apply to this Product/Service
 61/143582
 WO2005/112978
 
 
 
Inventor(s) PEDIGREE
Years EXPERIENCE in related industry 19
GRANTED Patents 3
Licensing Deals SIGNED 0
Innovations that have SHIPPED 0
For USA Patents: Utility Patent = 7 digit number, Design Patent starts with D, Planet Patent starts with PP. Provisional Application "61/xxx,xxx", Non provisional application "12/xxx,xxx", Design patent application "29/xxx,xxx"
CAUTION: This Merwyn Business Simulation Research Report includes no warranty or guarantee. Results and opinions should be considered rough and directional in nature. This is because the report is based upon inventor-supplied data and simplified modeling methods. If you are looking to invest, distribute, purchase or become involved with this innovation, in any way, we strongly urge you to validate the inventor data and sales forecasts BEFORE committing yourself or your resources. Merwyn Research, Inc. shall not be responsible for any liability or damages arising out of the failure to perform such investigation and validation. Changes in the concept description, product, pricing, or input assumptions will almost certainly change results.
Listing #: USA.76.022409.001 Page 4 of 5 Date Posted: 2009-04-08
©2008. Eureka! Institute. All Rights Reserved. Patents Granted or Pending Eureka! Ranch International www.EurekaRanch.com (513) 271-9911

Additional Forecasts for Other Countries
Annual Sales - Probability Forecast - Canada
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $1,400 $14,000
Low Support $18,000 $61,000 $160,000
Medium Support $150,000 $440,000 $1.0 M
High Support $400,000 $1.2 M $2.8 M
Ultra High $770,000 $2.3 M $5.3 M
Annual Sales - Probability Forecast - United Kingdom
Sales & Marketing
Support Level
Conservative
80% odds
of selling
Most Likely
50% odds
of selling
Aggressive
20% odds
of selling
Ultra Low $0 $2,600 $25,000
Low Support $31,000 $110,000 $290,000
Medium Support $260,000 $790,000 $1.8 M
High Support $700,000 $2.1 M $5.0 M
Ultra High $1.4 M $4.2 M $9.5 M
Forecast are calculated based on population, (PPP) purchasing power parity, International Trade, Urbanization and the Human Growth Index.
Forecast can be skewed for some industries, so for best results, adjusting the number of final decision makers for every country is recommended.
Listing #: USA.76.022409.001 Page 5 of 5 Date Posted: 2009-04-08
©2008. Eureka! Institute. All Rights Reserved. Patents Granted or Pending Eureka! Ranch International www.EurekaRanch.com (513) 271-9911
©2009-2010. Eureka! Institute. Inc. All Rights Reserved. Used under license by Merwyn Research, Inc. Patents Granted or Pending www.Merwyn.com
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